28th November 2023: The most recent COTR data on LME speculative positions (for the week ending 24th November 2023) were released this afternoon. The data showed that trends in speculative positions varied significantly across the base metals complex. Bullish net speculative increases were seen for aluminium, copper and lead, driven by fresh longs. By contrast, fresh shorts drove a fall in net speculative length for nickel, tin and zinc.
For aluminium, nickel and tin, net speculative positions are low relative to the historical range, at 0-12%. Copper and zinc had a higher level of net speculative longs, but these were still in the bottom half of the historical range, at 27% and 34% respectively. By contrast, another build in longs for lead has helped take it to 86% of the historical range. A high percentage indicates an increased chance of mean-reversion in the months ahead and potentially lower prices.
We explained in our recent research piece that we use the trend in the categories “Investment Funds” and “Other Financial Institutions” combined for this report, because this total has a close correlation with LME price trends. The report is here: https://amt.co.uk/amt-insight-lme-cotr-follow-the-money/.