December proving to be full of surprises, and the week ending 14/12 was no exception…
The week started in a positive light as the Chinese Politburo looked to prioritise domestic demand in 2026 with leaders keeping a more proactive fiscal policy and maintaining a moderately loose monetary stance – RRR, rate cuts included. Continued poor data this year keeping pressure on the CCP, a potential stimulus package on the horizon?
On Friday, copper saw an all-time high of $11,952, looking well on its way to push through another key psychological level of $12,000. Later that day, copper dropped nearly $500.
Since 21/11, copper has been tracking an uptrend and subsequently finding support here ( price) 5 separate days. CTA’s and other large players alike had been reaping the rewards of this move; CTA’s being max long on the run up to Friday.
The catalyst for the sell-off remains somewhat unclear – no major (related) headlines released. However, a combination of ‘Some Oracle Data Centres for Open AI Delayed To 2028 From 2027’ and “Blue Owl will not back $10bn Oracle Data Center, continue to take the speculative heat out of the market. Friday profit taking after a strong week will ultimate fuel algo related selling given the out sized moves this week (low of $11,434.5 and high of $11,952).
Looking at the rest of the industrial complex, Zinc and Tin have held recent gains while Tin is being buoyed by an uncertain geopolitical landscape in the DRC; M23 rebels seizing more villages.
Zinc remains in a trend channel which dates to May – Thursday, despite zinc rallying $140, saw the channel remain intact as we closed at 3203.5 for the day, the upper channel being 3204.5