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AMT Insight – Base Metals: Speculative Bubbles Build

Base Metals Copper Lead Nickel Primary Aluminium Tin Zinc

12 April 2024: After a weak start to 2024, base metal prices jumped in March and early April, mainly driven by speculative forces. There are three reasons to believe that prices look overextended. First, net speculative positions look very high for copper and tin and rallies in nickel and zinc look difficult to justify given […]

April 15, 2024 - Dan Smith

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AMT LME COTR Analysis 9 April

Base Metals LME speculators

9 April 2024: COTR data on LME speculative positions (for the week ending 5 April) were released this afternoon. The data showed that speculators were bullish across the whole complex, with net longs increasing. Fresh longs were seen in aluminium, copper, tin and zinc. However, the dominant driver for lead and nickel was short-covering, which […]

April 9, 2024 - Dan Smith

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AMT Insight – Nickel: Prices Bounce Back on Margin Compression

China Electric vehicle Indonesia Nickel

19 March 2024: LME nickel prices have outperformed the rest of the base metals complex in the past month, with fundamentals starting to tighten. The market was in significant oversupply in 2023, but this drove prices down to rock bottom levels and producers then reacted quickly by cutting output. Also bullish is that nickel demand […]

March 20, 2024 - Dan Smith

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AMT Insight – Base metals outlook video – why, where, what next?

Base Metals Copper Primary Aluminium Tin

Get the latest insights on base metals via our research video, which is now available for clients on Youtube. See link below. The base metals showed significant divergence in terms of price trends in the past year. We explain why this happened, where we are in terms of fundamentals and what happens next? The […]

February 27, 2024 - Dan Smith

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Tin: Technology Upturn, Amid Supply Crunch

Base Metals China Tin

9 February 2024: LME tin prices have outperformed the rest of the base metals complex in the past month, with fundamentals starting to tighten. Demand is improving, helped by an upswing in the global technology cycle. Even in China, electrical/electronic products are benefitting from government stimulus focussed on tin-related sectors, with limited exposure to the […]

February 9, 2024 - Dan Smith

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Base Metals: Looking for Goldilocks

Base Metals China Copper Tin

19 January 2024: After a weak start to 2024, the major LME base metals are likely to trend higher in the year ahead. Interest rates are expected to fall and key parts of the global economy, such as China and the US should continue to grow. Furthermore, base metals demand is receiving a significant boost […]

January 19, 2024 - Dan Smith

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Aluminium: Supply Shocks Shift Sentiment

China Primary Aluminium Russia

11 January 2024: The LME three-month aluminium price is up 6% in the past month, making it the best performing base metal during this period. Market fundamentals are supportive, with SHFE prices trading at a premium to the LME and the raw material market tightening, due to problems with bauxite supply in China and Guinea. […]

January 11, 2024 - Dan Smith

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Copper Bulls: Notable By Their Absence

China Copper

15th December 2023: LME three-month copper prices have risen in the past month, helped by significant problems with mine supply in Latin America. Also, contract treatment charges (TCs) have been cut, as miners gain the upper hand with smelters in China, amid a tight raw materials market. Furthermore, Chinese copper imports have bounced back and […]

December 15, 2023 - Dan Smith

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Base Metals: Resilience, Amid Global Headwinds

2nd October 2023: The major LME base metals have mostly rallied in the past year, although nickel and zinc prices have fallen sharply, reflecting poor fundamentals. One surprise has been the resilience of the base metals, despite the backdrop of problems in the Chinese property market. This is mainly because high debt levels at property […]

October 3, 2023 - Dan Smith

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