Insights

MARKET INSIGHTS

  • Will Consumers Pay More For Low-Carbon Aluminium?
    Pressure from society, industrial consumers and governments to cut CO2 emissions from aluminium production is imposing costs on producers. Whether this cost is absorbed by governments or passed on to industrial consumers through higher premiums or underlying aluminium prices is subject to significant policy uncertainty. Background The global aluminium industry emits 1.1 bn tonnes of CO2 annually, ~2% … Read More
  • Bets Tempered For Future Battery-Grade Nickel Shortage
    In early March nickel prices retreated by ~20% from February highs. The sharp move came after China steel giant and top nickel producer Tsingshan announced plans to produce a precursor to battery-grade nickel from nickel pig iron (NPI). This dampened investor expectations for a future shortage of Class 1 nickel from strong forecast growth in electric vehicle (EV) … Read More
  • China Aluminium Output Growth Faces Climate Obstacles
    Strong growth in China aluminium smelting capacity and primary output over the last year have weighed on aluminium market sentiment and kept the global market in surplus. However, fresh determination in China to clamp-down on energy-intensive and high-carbon industries threaten approvals for new projects and expectations for continued supply growth in 2021 and the years ahead.   Recent … Read More
  • How Robust is Copper’s Bull Market Narrative?
    Copper’s relentless rally from March 2020 lows has seen prices rise by almost 50% from pre-pandemic levels to almost $9,500. The rally accelerated in February amid bullish forecasts from banks including Goldman Sachs, who expect prices to hit record highs of $10,500 within the next 12-months. Deficit expectations, low visible inventories, long-term demand hopes and record global stimulus … Read More
  • Tin Under Pressure After Stunning Start to 2021
    The LME 3-Month tin price gained up to 35% in early 2021 amid unprecedented global physical supply tightness. Nearby spreads hit extreme backwardations amid low global inventories. However, prices eased sharply in recent days amid aggressive selling; Investors fear an easing of metal shortages in the coming months, with LME inventories rising from lows. Prices may come under … Read More
  • China Metal Demand Primed To Bounce Back From Holiday Lull
    China’s New Year Holiday will officially take place from 11th-17th February this year. We expect a seasonal slowdown in China industrial activity and strong metal inventory growth in February. However, a strong rebound in downstream activity is likely in the following months amid supportive fundamental drivers. China policy tapering remains a headwind for investor risk appetite but is … Read More