24 January 2025: China is a crucial driver for the LME metal markets and financial market sentiment still looks depressed in the country, with equity markets dropping in the first few weeks of this year. However, we are seeing some green shoots emerging and see scope for fundamentals and sentiment to improve in the months […]
January 24, 2025 - Dan Smith
21 January 2025: Data on LME COTR speculative positions (for the week ending 17 January) were released this afternoon. The data shows that net positions rose for all the base metals, with the exception of lead. Fresh longs were seen for aluminium, copper and zinc, while short covering was the main driver for nickel and […]
January 21, 2025 - Dan Smith
17 January 2025: The LME three-month copper price underperformed in the second half of last year, but it has bounced back in recent weeks. The market is being impacted by the threat of additional US tariffs, which has led to a surge in US copper prices relative to the LME. Also, China has cut its […]
January 17, 2025 - Dan Smith
9 January 2025: Donald Trump will start his second term as US President on 20 January and his approach is likely to be radically different to his predecessors, including attempts to raise trade barriers and “Make America Great Again”. While there is some understandable concern about the impact of higher tariffs and a more challenging […]
January 10, 2025 - Dan Smith
19 December 2024: LME tin prices have outperformed the rest of the base metals complex so far this year and upside risks are now building for 2025. In terms of global demand, this appears to have grown strongly in H2 2024, helped by a boom in computers/electronics, electric vehicles and solar PV. Furthermore, on the […]
December 20, 2024 - Dan Smith
Our latest Youtube video is now available giving our review of base metal market trends in 2024 and look ahead to 2025. Click on the link below to see our latest outlook and price forecasts: https://youtu.be/vWBKe6iBzRk
December 13, 2024 - Dan Smith
3 December 2024: Zinc prices have rallied this year, despite a backdrop of lacklustre demand conditions in the Chinese property market. Recent days have also seen a sharp fall in on-warrant LME stocks, with cancelled warrants jumping, which is helping to create tightness on the exchange. The physical market is also tight, with spot treatment […]
December 3, 2024 - Dan Smith
8 November 2024: Risk appetite has been fickle in the run up to the US election and Chinese stimulus measures have been disappointing. Given this, base metal prices have mostly moved sideways in the past six months, creating an ideal environment for mean reverting algorithmic trading models. Our models for aluminium, copper and zinc have […]
November 11, 2024 - Dan Smith
24 September 2024: The LME base metals complex saw mixed price trends in the past year, with aluminium, copper and zinc all up, while tin prices soared. The OECD countries saw sharp falls in inflation and US interest rates were cut, helping to boost financial markets and commodities more generally. Speculative positions have increased for […]
September 26, 2024 - Dan Smith