14 January 2025: Data on LME COTR speculative positions (for the week ending 10 January) were released this afternoon. The data shows that net positions rose for aluminium, copper, nickel and tin, helped by fresh longs. By contrast, there was a fall for lead and zinc. The data also shows that aluminium, copper and zinc […]
January 14, 2025 - Dan Smith
3 December 2024: Zinc prices have rallied this year, despite a backdrop of lacklustre demand conditions in the Chinese property market. Recent days have also seen a sharp fall in on-warrant LME stocks, with cancelled warrants jumping, which is helping to create tightness on the exchange. The physical market is also tight, with spot treatment […]
December 3, 2024 - Dan Smith
8 November 2024: Risk appetite has been fickle in the run up to the US election and Chinese stimulus measures have been disappointing. Given this, base metal prices have mostly moved sideways in the past six months, creating an ideal environment for mean reverting algorithmic trading models. Our models for aluminium, copper and zinc have […]
November 11, 2024 - Dan Smith
24 September 2024: The LME base metals complex saw mixed price trends in the past year, with aluminium, copper and zinc all up, while tin prices soared. The OECD countries saw sharp falls in inflation and US interest rates were cut, helping to boost financial markets and commodities more generally. Speculative positions have increased for […]
September 26, 2024 - Dan Smith
25 April 2024: Base metal prices have soared in the past month, with additional sanctions on Russia combining with improving fundamentals. The LME was forced to act twice in April to impose restrictions on Russian metal deliveries and then to tighten rules around rent-sharing deals to maintain liquidity. This has created a confusing picture of […]
April 29, 2024 - Dan Smith