Overview
The tin market has entered a seasonally soft period, with spot demand weakening into the summer months. While this slowdown is typical, it has been exacerbated by trade policy uncertainty and shifting supply expectations. Key supply constraints have eased and although LME-visible inventory remains low, there is ample tin available off-warrant.
LME Inventories
As of August 5, 2025, LME tin stocks remain low: with over 25% of global LME stocks cancelled.
Supply Dynamics
Myanmar
- Mining in the Wa State is set to restart imminently, ending a near two-year
- Several firms have accepted higher licensing fees under the new regime and obtained permits.
- While positive for supply, output will return gradually, and a material impact is expected in H2 2025.
- The market anticipates an increase in Chinese ore imports from Myanmar, easing concentrate tightness locally.
Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC)
- The Bisie mine, which accounted for 6.1% of global mine output in 2024, resumed production in May 2025.
- This follows a 28-day halt in March–April and is expected to ease pressure on Chinese smelter input flows.
Indonesia
- Tin exports rebounded sharply in 2025.
- Jan–May exports rose 110% YoY, bringing volumes back toward historical norms.
- This return to normal trade patterns is helping stabilize supply sentiment globally.
Demand Trends
Spot demand remains weak, consistent with seasonal softness and compounded by macroeconomic uncertainty and tariff-related caution. Buyers in North America and Europe are particularly hesitant amid trade risk.
That said, the structural demand outlook is unchanged. Tin remains essential for:
- Semiconductor packaging and AI-linked soldering
- EV components and green energy technologies
- Photovoltaic systems and industrial automation
While order volumes are temporarily suppressed, long-term end-use growth continues to underpin a constructive investment case.
Summary & Outlook
- Supply constraints have eased considerably, with the restart of DRC and Indonesia production, and Myanmar returning in H2.
- Demand is seasonally soft, amplified by macro uncertainty and trade risk aversion.
- Speculative positioning is light and cautious, reflecting flat price expectations.
- LME inventory is low, but this no longer indicates acute tightness given the large off-warrant stock availability.
- The market is consolidating in a stable range, and short-term upside may require a demand-side catalyst or new macro development.
Base Case: Continued rangebound trade between $32,000–$34,000/mt Upside Risk: Delays in Myanmar restart, electronics demand surge Downside Risk: Escalation in trade barriers or semiconductor slowdown