17 December 2024: Data on LME COTR speculative positions (for the week ending 13 December) were released this afternoon. The data showed that net positions changed little, as markets approach year-end. However, there was a bearish bias, with cuts for four out of six base metals, consistent with our own algo models, which are turning increasingly bearish.
The data showed that aluminium, copper and zinc were neither overbought nor oversold, with net speculation close to the middle of the historical range (see Table 2). By contrast, lead and nickel looked oversold, with positions in the bottom 15% of the five-year range, showing limited scope for further speculative selling.
We explained in our research piece that we use the trend in the categories “Investment Funds” and “Other Financial Institutions” combined for this report, because this total has a close correlation with LME price trends. The report can be found here: https://amt.co.uk/amt-insight-lme-cotr-follow-the-money/.
