After two years of stimulus-fuelled gains, zinc prices are off highs as global growth headwinds threaten the zinc demand outlook and broader risk appetite. However, ex-China inventory scarcity, European smelter curbs due to high energy prices, and significant global deficit projections for 2022 should help zinc weather the macro-storm.
May 30, 2022 - Dan Smith
Aggressive measures to tackle China’s COVID-19 resurgence have badly hit its economy, but Beijing remains resolutely committed to its zero-COVID approach. Along with a soft stimulus-response and deepening property sector weakness, this has undermined commodities demand prospects and triggered a pullback in prices. China’s supply-chain issues risk exacerbating global inflationary pressures and accelerating policy tightening by central banks.
April 27, 2022
The tin price has receded since early March but maintains its underlying bull market uptrend. China’s import demand is likely to absorb stronger ex-China production in Q2. The market remains vulnerable to scarcity pricing behaviour with global visible inventories near historical lows. However, global demand headwinds and recovering supply point to a significant pullback in […]
April 11, 2022
Copper prices set an all-time high of $10,845 in early March after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, but have since pared gains amid LME liquidity issues and rising headwinds to global growth. “Green demand” optimism underpins copper’s bullish long term prospects, but fading ex-China stimulus and strong mine supply growth could see prices moderate from elevated […]
April 1, 2022
Base metals prices have retreated from early-March extremes. Risk-aversion hit the complex despite tight underlying physical markets and feared disruption to Russian supply amid sanctions. Damaged confidence in the LME and liquidity issues following nickel’s price spike and trading halt, hopes for a diplomatic resolution to the Ukraine war, and risks to growth from higher […]
March 18, 2022
Nickel prices have had a roaring start to 2022. An extended drawdown of visible inventories reflects acute global physical market tightness, particularly for Class 1 refined nickel. The market is struggling to satisfy demand from the burgeoning electric vehicle battery sector and improving expectations for stainless steel demand growth in China. Acute supply risks due […]
March 4, 2022
The aluminium market is experiencing an array of supply pressures and threats. Combined with robust demand these have underpinned the metal’s rally to near all-time highs. Supply headwinds from surging energy prices and Ukraine tensions could prove transient. However, decarbonisation goals will constrain output growth in the coming years amid rising demand. This could exacerbate […]
February 22, 2022
The threat of a Russian invasion of Ukraine has stoked geopolitical tensions between Russia, the US and its European allies. A military incursion and subsequent retaliatory sanctions could affect base metals markets via disruption to Russia’s metal supply, higher energy costs for Europe’s metal producers and macro-led risk-reduction. Background Russia has amassed a sizeable […]
February 3, 2022
On 18th January 2022, Amalgamated Metal Trading Ltd. (AMT) hosted a panel of leading industry analysts from BMO Capital Markets, CRU and Fastmarkets to discuss the key themes likely to drive base metal markets through 2022. We also provided a brief recap of base metal performance in 2021. The recording is available below. Moderating: […]
January 11, 2022