19 December 2024: LME tin prices have outperformed the rest of the base metals complex so far this year and upside risks are now building for 2025. In terms of global demand, this appears to have grown strongly in H2 2024, helped by a boom in computers/electronics, electric vehicles and solar PV. Furthermore, on the […]
December 20, 2024 - Dan Smith
17 December 2024: Data on LME COTR speculative positions (for the week ending 13 December) were released this afternoon. The data showed that net positions changed little, as markets approach year-end. However, there was a bearish bias, with cuts for four out of six base metals, consistent with our own algo models, which are turning […]
December 17, 2024 - Dan Smith
Our latest Youtube video is now available giving our review of base metal market trends in 2024 and look ahead to 2025. Click on the link below to see our latest outlook and price forecasts: https://youtu.be/vWBKe6iBzRk
December 13, 2024 - Dan Smith
3 December 2024: Zinc prices have rallied this year, despite a backdrop of lacklustre demand conditions in the Chinese property market. Recent days have also seen a sharp fall in on-warrant LME stocks, with cancelled warrants jumping, which is helping to create tightness on the exchange. The physical market is also tight, with spot treatment […]
December 3, 2024 - Dan Smith
8 November 2024: Risk appetite has been fickle in the run up to the US election and Chinese stimulus measures have been disappointing. Given this, base metal prices have mostly moved sideways in the past six months, creating an ideal environment for mean reverting algorithmic trading models. Our models for aluminium, copper and zinc have […]
November 11, 2024 - Dan Smith
24 September 2024: The LME base metals complex saw mixed price trends in the past year, with aluminium, copper and zinc all up, while tin prices soared. The OECD countries saw sharp falls in inflation and US interest rates were cut, helping to boost financial markets and commodities more generally. Speculative positions have increased for […]
September 26, 2024 - Dan Smith
11 September 2024: LME three-month copper prices rallied into mid-May, but have fallen significantly since then. The biggest problem for bulls is that the Chinese economy continues to struggle, and demand is not growing as quickly as expected. Another challenge is that mine supply growth has picked up in Chile and the DRC is booming, […]
September 12, 2024 - Dan Smith
24 July 2024: Base metal prices are driven by a combination of fundamental and technical drivers. One important part of technical analysis is to understand and predict market momentum. In this piece we set out our method for back testing and modelling momentum, looking at all the popular models used in financial markets, including MACD, […]
July 25, 2024 - Dan Smith
18 June 2024: Base metal prices rallied in the first half of this year, but we believe that the rally is overdone, given the state of fundamentals, where investors are positioned and seasonality charts. Chinese demand was strong in Q1, but weakened into Q2. In many cases this fed through into higher domestic inventory levels […]
June 19, 2024 - Dan Smith