17 January 2025: The LME three-month copper price underperformed in the second half of last year, but it has bounced back in recent weeks. The market is being impacted by the threat of additional US tariffs, which has led to a surge in US copper prices relative to the LME. Also, China has cut its […]
January 17, 2025 - Dan Smith
14 January 2025: Data on LME COTR speculative positions (for the week ending 10 January) were released this afternoon. The data shows that net positions rose for aluminium, copper, nickel and tin, helped by fresh longs. By contrast, there was a fall for lead and zinc. The data also shows that aluminium, copper and zinc […]
January 14, 2025 - Dan Smith
9 January 2025: Donald Trump will start his second term as US President on 20 January and his approach is likely to be radically different to his predecessors, including attempts to raise trade barriers and “Make America Great Again”. While there is some understandable concern about the impact of higher tariffs and a more challenging […]
January 10, 2025 - Dan Smith
19 December 2024: LME tin prices have outperformed the rest of the base metals complex so far this year and upside risks are now building for 2025. In terms of global demand, this appears to have grown strongly in H2 2024, helped by a boom in computers/electronics, electric vehicles and solar PV. Furthermore, on the […]
December 20, 2024 - Dan Smith
Our latest Youtube video is now available giving our review of base metal market trends in 2024 and look ahead to 2025. Click on the link below to see our latest outlook and price forecasts: https://youtu.be/vWBKe6iBzRk
December 13, 2024 - Dan Smith
3 December 2024: Zinc prices have rallied this year, despite a backdrop of lacklustre demand conditions in the Chinese property market. Recent days have also seen a sharp fall in on-warrant LME stocks, with cancelled warrants jumping, which is helping to create tightness on the exchange. The physical market is also tight, with spot treatment […]
December 3, 2024 - Dan Smith
8 November 2024: Risk appetite has been fickle in the run up to the US election and Chinese stimulus measures have been disappointing. Given this, base metal prices have mostly moved sideways in the past six months, creating an ideal environment for mean reverting algorithmic trading models. Our models for aluminium, copper and zinc have […]
November 11, 2024 - Dan Smith
24 September 2024: The LME base metals complex saw mixed price trends in the past year, with aluminium, copper and zinc all up, while tin prices soared. The OECD countries saw sharp falls in inflation and US interest rates were cut, helping to boost financial markets and commodities more generally. Speculative positions have increased for […]
September 26, 2024 - Dan Smith
11 September 2024: LME three-month copper prices rallied into mid-May, but have fallen significantly since then. The biggest problem for bulls is that the Chinese economy continues to struggle, and demand is not growing as quickly as expected. Another challenge is that mine supply growth has picked up in Chile and the DRC is booming, […]
September 12, 2024 - Dan Smith