21st October 2022: Base metal prices have fallen sharply this year, as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine sent shockwaves through financial markets. While demand growth has slowed across the complex, inventory levels remain surprisingly low, helped by supply side challenges. We believe that investor positioning has already discounted most of the bad news. In the year […]
October 21, 2022 - Dan Smith
Russian Aluminium – The Door Is Closing 6th October 2022: Aluminium prices have rallied as the market starts to worry about low LME stocks and the potential impact of an LME ban on Russian metal. While there is scope for trade flows to be diverted, this will take time and significant short-term disruption is likely. […]
October 6, 2022 - Dan Smith
28th September 2022: Copper prices fell in the past month, as inflation seems to be running out of control in the US and recession fears are elevated. Copper is closely tracking economic variables, showing that the headwinds from a strong US currency are significant. Fundamentals are looking supportive though and Chinese demand looks set to […]
September 28, 2022 - Dan Smith
6th September 2022: Aluminium prices fell in August, as demand weakness combined with a stronger USD and declining risk appetite. Meanwhile, gas prices surged in Europe and the US, putting 1.2Mt/y of smelter capacity at risk from high electricity prices. Aluminium fundamentals still look lacklustre, but the downside for prices is starting to look limited […]
September 9, 2022 - Dan Smith
After two years of stimulus-fuelled gains, zinc prices are off highs as global growth headwinds threaten the zinc demand outlook and broader risk appetite. However, ex-China inventory scarcity, European smelter curbs due to high energy prices, and significant global deficit projections for 2022 should help zinc weather the macro-storm.
May 30, 2022 - Dan Smith
Aggressive measures to tackle China’s COVID-19 resurgence have badly hit its economy, but Beijing remains resolutely committed to its zero-COVID approach. Along with a soft stimulus-response and deepening property sector weakness, this has undermined commodities demand prospects and triggered a pullback in prices. China’s supply-chain issues risk exacerbating global inflationary pressures and accelerating policy tightening by central banks.
April 27, 2022
The tin price has receded since early March but maintains its underlying bull market uptrend. China’s import demand is likely to absorb stronger ex-China production in Q2. The market remains vulnerable to scarcity pricing behaviour with global visible inventories near historical lows. However, global demand headwinds and recovering supply point to a significant pullback in […]
April 11, 2022
Copper prices set an all-time high of $10,845 in early March after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, but have since pared gains amid LME liquidity issues and rising headwinds to global growth. “Green demand” optimism underpins copper’s bullish long term prospects, but fading ex-China stimulus and strong mine supply growth could see prices moderate from elevated […]
April 1, 2022
Base metals prices have retreated from early-March extremes. Risk-aversion hit the complex despite tight underlying physical markets and feared disruption to Russian supply amid sanctions. Damaged confidence in the LME and liquidity issues following nickel’s price spike and trading halt, hopes for a diplomatic resolution to the Ukraine war, and risks to growth from higher […]
March 18, 2022