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China: Don’t Believe the Hype

Base Metals China

25th November 2022: Base metal prices have rallied in recent weeks with PMI survey data for November suggesting some improvement in Europe and the USD has fallen back, helping to lift commodity prices. However, high frequency data from China shows a sharp slowdown in activity in recent weeks and a severe lockdown is evident in […]

November 28, 2022 - Dan Smith

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Base metals: Micro Outweighs Macro

Base Metals Copper

Base metal prices have rallied in recent weeks and copper prices have jumped, despite the backdrop of weakness in global manufacturing and continued lockdowns in China. Investor sentiment is still depressed compared to recent history, but is tentatively moving higher on hopes that we may be close to a turning point in the economic cycle. […]

November 11, 2022 - Dan Smith

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Base metals: Reasons to Be Cheerful and Fearful

Base Metals

21st October 2022: Base metal prices have fallen sharply this year, as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine sent shockwaves through financial markets. While demand growth has slowed across the complex, inventory levels remain surprisingly low, helped by supply side challenges. We believe that investor positioning has already discounted most of the bad news. In the year […]

October 21, 2022 - Dan Smith

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Russian Aluminium: The Door Is Closing

Primary Aluminium

Russian Aluminium – The Door Is Closing 6th October 2022: Aluminium prices have rallied as the market starts to worry about low LME stocks and the potential impact of an LME ban on Russian metal. While there is scope for trade flows to be diverted, this will take time and significant short-term disruption is likely. […]

October 6, 2022 - Dan Smith

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Copper Falls – Setback or Existential Crisis?


28th September 2022: Copper prices fell in the past month, as inflation seems to be running out of control in the US and recession fears are elevated. Copper is closely tracking economic variables, showing that the headwinds from a strong US currency are significant. Fundamentals are looking supportive though and Chinese demand looks set to […]

September 28, 2022 - Dan Smith

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Aluminium: Energy Spike Alters Risk-Reward

Primary Aluminium

6th September 2022: Aluminium prices fell in August, as demand weakness combined with a stronger USD and declining risk appetite. Meanwhile, gas prices surged in Europe and the US, putting 1.2Mt/y of smelter capacity at risk from high electricity prices. Aluminium fundamentals still look lacklustre, but the downside for prices is starting to look limited […]

September 9, 2022 - Dan Smith

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Tight Zinc Market Battling Global Growth Headwinds


After two years of stimulus-fuelled gains, zinc prices are off highs as global growth headwinds threaten the zinc demand outlook and broader risk appetite. However, ex-China inventory scarcity, European smelter curbs due to high energy prices, and significant global deficit projections for 2022 should help zinc weather the macro-storm.

May 30, 2022 - Dan Smith

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China’s COVID Absolutism Roils Metal Markets

Base Metals

Aggressive measures to tackle China’s COVID-19 resurgence have badly hit its economy, but Beijing remains resolutely committed to its zero-COVID approach. Along with a soft stimulus-response and deepening property sector weakness, this has undermined commodities demand prospects and triggered a pullback in prices. China’s supply-chain issues risk exacerbating global inflationary pressures and accelerating policy tightening by central banks.

April 27, 2022

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Can China Import Demand Sustain Tin Price Gains?


The tin price has receded since early March but maintains its underlying bull market uptrend. China’s import demand is likely to absorb stronger ex-China production in Q2. The market remains vulnerable to scarcity pricing behaviour with global visible inventories near historical lows. However, global demand headwinds and recovering supply point to a significant pullback in […]

April 11, 2022

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