19 January 2024: After a weak start to 2024, the major LME base metals are likely to trend higher in the year ahead. Interest rates are expected to fall and key parts of the global economy, such as China and the US should continue to grow. Furthermore, base metals demand is receiving a significant boost […]
January 19, 2024 - Dan Smith
11 January 2024: The LME three-month aluminium price is up 6% in the past month, making it the best performing base metal during this period. Market fundamentals are supportive, with SHFE prices trading at a premium to the LME and the raw material market tightening, due to problems with bauxite supply in China and Guinea. […]
January 11, 2024 - Dan Smith
15th December 2023: LME three-month copper prices have risen in the past month, helped by significant problems with mine supply in Latin America. Also, contract treatment charges (TCs) have been cut, as miners gain the upper hand with smelters in China, amid a tight raw materials market. Furthermore, Chinese copper imports have bounced back and […]
December 15, 2023 - Dan Smith
2nd October 2023: The major LME base metals have mostly rallied in the past year, although nickel and zinc prices have fallen sharply, reflecting poor fundamentals. One surprise has been the resilience of the base metals, despite the backdrop of problems in the Chinese property market. This is mainly because high debt levels at property […]
October 3, 2023 - Dan Smith
14th September 2023: LME three-month aluminium prices tumbled in the first half of this year, but the fall was halted in Q3 and we expect prices to rally in the year ahead. One reason for being bullish is that the Chinese market is starting to tighten, despite the backdrop of gloom around the property market. […]
September 22, 2023 - Dan Smith
2nd August 2023: Base metal prices have a close relationship with LME net speculative positions. Tracking these speculative flows helps to explain why markets are moving and allows us to differentiate between investment-driven changes in price and fundamental changes and to assess whether there is a gap between the two. There is also a forward-looking […]
August 2, 2023 - Dan Smith
14th July 2023: LME base metal prices showed mixed trends in H1 2023. While tin prices jumped, the rest of the complex retreated. Headwinds are coming from poor sentiment in China and weakness in global construction and manufacturing markets. However, markets like copper, nickel and tin saw a demand boost from the green energy transition. […]
July 14, 2023 - Dan Smith
15th May 2023: Base metal prices have diverged so far year, as fundamental drivers have started to reassert themselves. In particular, tin was supported by concerns about supply shortages, due to problems in Myanmar and copper prices have been resilient, helped by the green energy transition. By contrast, significant weakness was seen in aluminium, lead, […]
May 15, 2023 - Dan Smith
Copper prices have fallen in recent weeks, as financial markets have started to worry about the impact of rising US interest rates and the ripples emanating from the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank. Copper arbitrage on COMEX is also trending down in line with lower speculative positions on the LME, confirming a broad retreat. However, […]
March 22, 2023 - Dan Smith