19 March 2024: LME nickel prices have outperformed the rest of the base metals complex in the past month, with fundamentals starting to tighten. The market was in significant oversupply in 2023, but this drove prices down to rock bottom levels and producers then reacted quickly by cutting output. Also bullish is that nickel demand […]
March 20, 2024 - Dan Smith
Get the latest insights on base metals via our research video, which is now available for clients on Youtube. See link below. https://youtu.be/mayVdpMry7g The base metals showed significant divergence in terms of price trends in the past year. We explain why this happened, where we are in terms of fundamentals and what happens next? The […]
February 27, 2024 - Dan Smith
9 February 2024: LME tin prices have outperformed the rest of the base metals complex in the past month, with fundamentals starting to tighten. Demand is improving, helped by an upswing in the global technology cycle. Even in China, electrical/electronic products are benefitting from government stimulus focussed on tin-related sectors, with limited exposure to the […]
February 9, 2024 - Dan Smith
19 January 2024: After a weak start to 2024, the major LME base metals are likely to trend higher in the year ahead. Interest rates are expected to fall and key parts of the global economy, such as China and the US should continue to grow. Furthermore, base metals demand is receiving a significant boost […]
January 19, 2024 - Dan Smith
11 January 2024: The LME three-month aluminium price is up 6% in the past month, making it the best performing base metal during this period. Market fundamentals are supportive, with SHFE prices trading at a premium to the LME and the raw material market tightening, due to problems with bauxite supply in China and Guinea. […]
January 11, 2024 - Dan Smith
15th December 2023: LME three-month copper prices have risen in the past month, helped by significant problems with mine supply in Latin America. Also, contract treatment charges (TCs) have been cut, as miners gain the upper hand with smelters in China, amid a tight raw materials market. Furthermore, Chinese copper imports have bounced back and […]
December 15, 2023 - Dan Smith
2nd October 2023: The major LME base metals have mostly rallied in the past year, although nickel and zinc prices have fallen sharply, reflecting poor fundamentals. One surprise has been the resilience of the base metals, despite the backdrop of problems in the Chinese property market. This is mainly because high debt levels at property […]
October 3, 2023 - Dan Smith
14th September 2023: LME three-month aluminium prices tumbled in the first half of this year, but the fall was halted in Q3 and we expect prices to rally in the year ahead. One reason for being bullish is that the Chinese market is starting to tighten, despite the backdrop of gloom around the property market. […]
September 22, 2023 - Dan Smith
2nd August 2023: Base metal prices have a close relationship with LME net speculative positions. Tracking these speculative flows helps to explain why markets are moving and allows us to differentiate between investment-driven changes in price and fundamental changes and to assess whether there is a gap between the two. There is also a forward-looking […]
August 2, 2023 - Dan Smith