Nickel prices have had a roaring start to 2022. An extended drawdown of visible inventories reflects acute global physical market tightness, particularly for Class 1 refined nickel. The market is struggling to satisfy demand from the burgeoning electric vehicle battery sector and improving expectations for stainless steel demand growth in China. Acute supply risks due […]
March 4, 2022
The aluminium market is experiencing an array of supply pressures and threats. Combined with robust demand these have underpinned the metal’s rally to near all-time highs. Supply headwinds from surging energy prices and Ukraine tensions could prove transient. However, decarbonisation goals will constrain output growth in the coming years amid rising demand. This could exacerbate […]
February 22, 2022
The threat of a Russian invasion of Ukraine has stoked geopolitical tensions between Russia, the US and its European allies. A military incursion and subsequent retaliatory sanctions could affect base metals markets via disruption to Russia’s metal supply, higher energy costs for Europe’s metal producers and macro-led risk-reduction. Background Russia has amassed a sizeable […]
February 3, 2022
On 18th January 2022, Amalgamated Metal Trading Ltd. (AMT) hosted a panel of leading industry analysts from BMO Capital Markets, CRU and Fastmarkets to discuss the key themes likely to drive base metal markets through 2022. We also provided a brief recap of base metal performance in 2021. The recording is available below. Moderating: […]
January 11, 2022
The spiralling cost of energy and emissions allowances in Europe continues to undermine the economics of Europe’s zinc production. Capacity reductions and smelter closures will exacerbate acute zinc supply pressures in Europe, where visible inventory is at critical lows. This should continue to underpin the LME zinc price, spreads and regional physical premiums in Q1 […]
December 22, 2021
Base metal availability and pricing remain sensitive to trends in supply-chain inventory requirements amid global shipping disruption. A bullwhip effect may be playing out in the global goods sector. This could weigh on prices if global freight issues ease during 2022. Growing barriers and risks to international metals trade may drive governments to develop or […]
December 10, 2021
The ferrous complex was weaker across the board in November. Iron Ore spot dipped below 100 down to 87 in the middle of November but recovered back to 100 at the end of the month to average 95. Declines in futures on the back of production cuts, falling steel demand and over supply of iron […]
December 3, 2021
Base metal prices have proved largely resilient to emerging risks to economic growth. This is amid persisting signs of acute physical tightness across the complex. Abnormally backwardated forward curves, sustained pressure on LME inventories, and elevated physical premiums are the clearest indicators. Backwardations Everywhere Notable tightness has developed across nearby LME spreads for all the […]
December 3, 2021
The main themes for October were soaring energy costs, falling iron ore prices, divergence between longs and flats and the US replacing Section 232 tariffs. Iron ore prices which have been on an uptrend since late 2018 due to firm Chinese demand, lost 8% value during the month. Improving steel mill margins since China’s steel […]
November 16, 2021