what does the stalling economy mean? Stalling growth in China’s economy and the rampant spread of the Covid-19 Delta variant across Southeast Asia threatens the base metals outlook. While at face value China’s RRR cut could boost risk assets through increased bank lending, it signals China’s policymakers are concerned about slowing domestic growth amid tighter […]
July 15, 2021
Can the tin market recover? The ex-China tin market remains in the grip of the severest physical shortages in recent memory. Driving tightness is strong pandemic-era demand for electronics and electrical goods, supply disruption across top tin producing regions, and critically low global inventories. Market tightness is likely to persist in H2 2021, even as […]
July 5, 2021
Surge for demand in Aluminium? Since the onset of the global pandemic, decarbonisation has become a core pillar of government policy for most major economies. Aluminium is likely to see strong demand from low-carbon technologies and constraints on supply due to a crackdown on high-carbon production and electricity use. This shift means the long-term fundamental […]
June 30, 2021
What is Resource Nationalism? Resource nationalism is the inclination of governments to seek greater control or revenue from natural resources in their territory. This is on the rise due to economic, nationalistic, and strategic factors amplified by the global pandemic. Punitive taxes, royalties, or other actions would likely hit mine project investment, but could also […]
June 10, 2021
What does this mean for the market? China policymakers have taken strong verbal action to tackle inflationary risks from surging commodity prices. This has moderated bullish speculative enthusiasm for metals, but could be short-lived; China lacks meaningful options to temper any further global surge in commodity prices without jeopardising other policy priorities. Commodity Price Surge […]
June 2, 2021
Why is lead bouncing back? The LME lead price rebounded strongly from March lows. Macro-led fund interest in commodities and lead’s relative cheapness underpinned gains. The rise is at odds with the metal’s weak fundamental narrative, which will likely continue to weigh on its relative price performance versus the rest of the base metals complex. […]
May 19, 2021
Copper hits all time high The LME copper price has surpassed the all-time high of $10,190 from 2011. Reflation-led investor interest in commodities continues to drive the bull-market uptrend. This is in addition to copper-specific projections that mine supply growth may struggle to meet potential demand from the global energy transition. Slowing physical interest in […]
May 11, 2021
What do these tin shortages mean? News of severe tin production disruption at Malaysia Smelting Corporation (MSC) that could last beyond the end of 2021 has helped reignite the tin price rally and tighten nearby LME spreads. While there is a lack of clarity on the potential impact on output, the news comes as yet […]
May 5, 2021
What has caused the global shipping disruption? Since the onset of the pandemic, an acute shortage of global container freight capacity has seen shipping costs and delays surge to unprecedented levels. Causing this was an unexpected surge in demand for consumer goods, stranded containers from asymmetry in trade flows, and port delays. Disruption has impacted […]
April 28, 2021