Base metal availability and pricing remain sensitive to trends in supply-chain inventory requirements amid global shipping disruption. A bullwhip effect may be playing out in the global goods sector. This could weigh on prices if global freight issues ease during 2022. Growing barriers and risks to international metals trade may drive governments to develop or […]
December 10, 2021
Base metal prices have proved largely resilient to emerging risks to economic growth. This is amid persisting signs of acute physical tightness across the complex. Abnormally backwardated forward curves, sustained pressure on LME inventories, and elevated physical premiums are the clearest indicators. Backwardations Everywhere Notable tightness has developed across nearby LME spreads for all the […]
December 3, 2021
Why are metal prices plummeting? Base metals prices aggressively retreated in the second half of October after China’s coal price collapsed following government intervention. Coal’s rout suggests easing power rationing and lower energy costs for metal producers. Fresh visibility of the impact of power shortages and related supply-chain disruption on downstream industrial activity and, by […]
November 3, 2021
What do these magnesium shortages mean? China produces the majority of the world’s magnesium but domestic power curbs have significantly disrupted output, triggering fears of a major global shortage. The metal is essential for producing aluminium alloys for the auto industry, among other applications. This threatens fresh automotive sector shutdowns and associated base metals demand. […]
October 29, 2021
What do global energy changes mean for metal prices? Governments globally are ramping up efforts to reduce fossil fuel dependency. This is to meet ambitious decarbonisation goals and curb industrial pollution. China has curbed smelter production and capacity growth to meet energy targets. This has been price-supportive, most notably for aluminium. However, Europe’s developing energy […]
September 27, 2021
Why has the shipping crisis worsened? The continuing global shipping crisis has widened dislocations between regional physical metal markets. Soaring physical premiums in the US and Europe and severe imbalances in global metal inventory distribution reflect the growing difficulty in shipping metal to where it is most needed. Shipping difficulties could worsen after recent port […]
August 23, 2021
Will climate change effect metal supply? While metal demand opportunities from decarbonisation have captured investor’s attention over the last year, the extreme weather observed globally in recent weeks highlights the growing influence that climate change itself is likely to have on metal markets. A warming climate is associated with more severe and frequent weather conditions, […]
July 27, 2021
what does the stalling economy mean? Stalling growth in China’s economy and the rampant spread of the Covid-19 Delta variant across Southeast Asia threatens the base metals outlook. While at face value China’s RRR cut could boost risk assets through increased bank lending, it signals China’s policymakers are concerned about slowing domestic growth amid tighter […]
July 15, 2021
What is Resource Nationalism? Resource nationalism is the inclination of governments to seek greater control or revenue from natural resources in their territory. This is on the rise due to economic, nationalistic, and strategic factors amplified by the global pandemic. Punitive taxes, royalties, or other actions would likely hit mine project investment, but could also […]
June 10, 2021