24 July 2024: Base metal prices are driven by a combination of fundamental and technical drivers. One important part of technical analysis is to understand and predict market momentum. In this piece we set out our method for back testing and modelling momentum, looking at all the popular models used in financial markets, including MACD, […]
July 25, 2024 - Dan Smith
23 July 2024: Data on LME COTR speculative positions (for the week ending 19 July) were released this afternoon. The data show that speculators turned aggressively bearish, with net positions falling for all the six base metals. In most cases, long liquidation combined with fresh shorts to drive positions lower. Nickel was slightly less bearish, […]
July 23, 2024 - Dan Smith
12 April 2024: After a weak start to 2024, base metal prices jumped in March and early April, mainly driven by speculative forces. There are three reasons to believe that prices look overextended. First, net speculative positions look very high for copper and tin and rallies in nickel and zinc look difficult to justify given […]
April 15, 2024 - Dan Smith
Get the latest insights on base metals via our research video, which is now available for clients on Youtube. See link below. https://youtu.be/mayVdpMry7g The base metals showed significant divergence in terms of price trends in the past year. We explain why this happened, where we are in terms of fundamentals and what happens next? The […]
February 27, 2024 - Dan Smith
9 February 2024: LME tin prices have outperformed the rest of the base metals complex in the past month, with fundamentals starting to tighten. Demand is improving, helped by an upswing in the global technology cycle. Even in China, electrical/electronic products are benefitting from government stimulus focussed on tin-related sectors, with limited exposure to the […]
February 9, 2024 - Dan Smith
19 January 2024: After a weak start to 2024, the major LME base metals are likely to trend higher in the year ahead. Interest rates are expected to fall and key parts of the global economy, such as China and the US should continue to grow. Furthermore, base metals demand is receiving a significant boost […]
January 19, 2024 - Dan Smith
15th May 2023: Base metal prices have diverged so far year, as fundamental drivers have started to reassert themselves. In particular, tin was supported by concerns about supply shortages, due to problems in Myanmar and copper prices have been resilient, helped by the green energy transition. By contrast, significant weakness was seen in aluminium, lead, […]
May 15, 2023 - Dan Smith
31st January 2023: Last year was a weak period for most of the base metals and prices trended lower through the year, although nickel was an exception and followed its own bullish path. By contrast, aluminium, copper, tin and zinc prices have all rallied this year, despite a weak fundamental backdrop. While there is currently […]
January 31, 2023 - Dan Smith
25th November 2022: Base metal prices have rallied in recent weeks with PMI survey data for November suggesting some improvement in Europe and the USD has fallen back, helping to lift commodity prices. However, high frequency data from China shows a sharp slowdown in activity in recent weeks and a severe lockdown is evident in […]
November 28, 2022 - Dan Smith