28th November 2023: The most recent COTR data on LME speculative positions (for the week ending 24th November 2023) were released this afternoon. The data showed that trends in speculative positions varied significantly across the base metals complex. Bullish net speculative increases were seen for aluminium, copper and lead, driven by fresh longs. By contrast, […]
November 28, 2023 - Dan Smith
15th May 2023: Base metal prices have diverged so far year, as fundamental drivers have started to reassert themselves. In particular, tin was supported by concerns about supply shortages, due to problems in Myanmar and copper prices have been resilient, helped by the green energy transition. By contrast, significant weakness was seen in aluminium, lead, […]
May 15, 2023 - Dan Smith
31st January 2023: Last year was a weak period for most of the base metals and prices trended lower through the year, although nickel was an exception and followed its own bullish path. By contrast, aluminium, copper, tin and zinc prices have all rallied this year, despite a weak fundamental backdrop. While there is currently […]
January 31, 2023 - Dan Smith
25th November 2022: Base metal prices have rallied in recent weeks with PMI survey data for November suggesting some improvement in Europe and the USD has fallen back, helping to lift commodity prices. However, high frequency data from China shows a sharp slowdown in activity in recent weeks and a severe lockdown is evident in […]
November 28, 2022 - Dan Smith
Base metal prices have rallied in recent weeks and copper prices have jumped, despite the backdrop of weakness in global manufacturing and continued lockdowns in China. Investor sentiment is still depressed compared to recent history, but is tentatively moving higher on hopes that we may be close to a turning point in the economic cycle. […]
November 11, 2022 - Dan Smith
21st October 2022: Base metal prices have fallen sharply this year, as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine sent shockwaves through financial markets. While demand growth has slowed across the complex, inventory levels remain surprisingly low, helped by supply side challenges. We believe that investor positioning has already discounted most of the bad news. In the year […]
October 21, 2022 - Dan Smith
Aggressive measures to tackle China’s COVID-19 resurgence have badly hit its economy, but Beijing remains resolutely committed to its zero-COVID approach. Along with a soft stimulus-response and deepening property sector weakness, this has undermined commodities demand prospects and triggered a pullback in prices. China’s supply-chain issues risk exacerbating global inflationary pressures and accelerating policy tightening by central banks.
April 27, 2022
Base metals prices have retreated from early-March extremes. Risk-aversion hit the complex despite tight underlying physical markets and feared disruption to Russian supply amid sanctions. Damaged confidence in the LME and liquidity issues following nickel’s price spike and trading halt, hopes for a diplomatic resolution to the Ukraine war, and risks to growth from higher […]
March 18, 2022
The threat of a Russian invasion of Ukraine has stoked geopolitical tensions between Russia, the US and its European allies. A military incursion and subsequent retaliatory sanctions could affect base metals markets via disruption to Russia’s metal supply, higher energy costs for Europe’s metal producers and macro-led risk-reduction. Background Russia has amassed a sizeable […]
February 3, 2022