AMT LME COTR Analysis 21 May

Base Metals LME speculators

21 May 2024: COTR data on LME speculative positions (for the week ending 17 May) were released this afternoon. The data showed that bullishness returned to the complex, with net speculative positions increasing for all six metals. Furthermore, fresh longs were seen in all cases, which is a strong bullish signal. This reflects greater optimism […]

May 21, 2024 - Dan Smith

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AMT Insight – Base Metals: Speculative Bubbles Build

Base Metals Copper Lead Nickel Primary Aluminium Tin Zinc

12 April 2024: After a weak start to 2024, base metal prices jumped in March and early April, mainly driven by speculative forces. There are three reasons to believe that prices look overextended. First, net speculative positions look very high for copper and tin and rallies in nickel and zinc look difficult to justify given […]

April 15, 2024 - Dan Smith

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AMT Insight – Base metals outlook video – why, where, what next?

Base Metals Copper Primary Aluminium Tin

Get the latest insights on base metals via our research video, which is now available for clients on Youtube. See link below. https://youtu.be/mayVdpMry7g The base metals showed significant divergence in terms of price trends in the past year. We explain why this happened, where we are in terms of fundamentals and what happens next? The […]

February 27, 2024 - Dan Smith

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Tin: Technology Upturn, Amid Supply Crunch

Base Metals China Tin

9 February 2024: LME tin prices have outperformed the rest of the base metals complex in the past month, with fundamentals starting to tighten. Demand is improving, helped by an upswing in the global technology cycle. Even in China, electrical/electronic products are benefitting from government stimulus focussed on tin-related sectors, with limited exposure to the […]

February 9, 2024 - Dan Smith

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Base Metals: Looking for Goldilocks

Base Metals China Copper Tin

19 January 2024: After a weak start to 2024, the major LME base metals are likely to trend higher in the year ahead. Interest rates are expected to fall and key parts of the global economy, such as China and the US should continue to grow. Furthermore, base metals demand is receiving a significant boost […]

January 19, 2024 - Dan Smith

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Base Metals: China Flatters to Deceive

Base Metals Copper Nickel Primary Aluminium Tin Zinc

15th May 2023: Base metal prices have diverged so far year, as fundamental drivers have started to reassert themselves. In particular, tin was supported by concerns about supply shortages, due to problems in Myanmar and copper prices have been resilient, helped by the green energy transition. By contrast, significant weakness was seen in aluminium, lead, […]

May 15, 2023 - Dan Smith

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Base Metals: China Bounce Back to Boost Prices

Base Metals Copper Lead Nickel Primary Aluminium Zinc

31st January 2023: Last year was a weak period for most of the base metals and prices trended lower through the year, although nickel was an exception and followed its own bullish path. By contrast, aluminium, copper, tin and zinc prices have all rallied this year, despite a weak fundamental backdrop. While there is currently […]

January 31, 2023 - Dan Smith

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China: Don’t Believe the Hype

Base Metals China

25th November 2022: Base metal prices have rallied in recent weeks with PMI survey data for November suggesting some improvement in Europe and the USD has fallen back, helping to lift commodity prices. However, high frequency data from China shows a sharp slowdown in activity in recent weeks and a severe lockdown is evident in […]

November 28, 2022 - Dan Smith

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Base metals: Micro Outweighs Macro

Base Metals Copper

Base metal prices have rallied in recent weeks and copper prices have jumped, despite the backdrop of weakness in global manufacturing and continued lockdowns in China. Investor sentiment is still depressed compared to recent history, but is tentatively moving higher on hopes that we may be close to a turning point in the economic cycle. […]

November 11, 2022 - Dan Smith

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