3 September 2024: Data on LME COTR speculative positions (for the week ending 30 August) were released this afternoon. The data showed that net positions increased for all the base metals except lead. However, short covering was the main driver for aluminium, copper, nickel, tin and zinc which, by definition, is a short-lived phenomenon. For lead, long liquidation overpowered short covering.
For nickel, LME net speculative positions remained low relative to the five-year historical range, at 16%. For aluminium, copper and zinc, the net speculative position was reasonably close to the middle of the range. A mid-range position indicates plenty of scope for speculators to build or cut positions from current levels. Tin is starting to look overextended at 75% of the range.
We explained in our research piece that we use the trend in the categories “Investment Funds” and “Other Financial Institutions” combined for this report, because this total has a close correlation with LME price trends. The report can be found here: https://amt.co.uk/amt-insight-lme-cotr-follow-the-money/.
