AMT LME COTR Analysis 9 April

Written By:
Dan Smith
Dan Smith
Head of Research

9 April 2024: COTR data on LME speculative positions (for the week ending 5 April) were released this afternoon. The data showed that speculators were bullish across the whole complex, with net longs increasing. Fresh longs were seen in aluminium, copper, tin and zinc. However, the dominant driver for lead and nickel was short-covering, which is less bullish. The bullish mood reflected an upturn in Chinese PMI figures for March.

For lead, nickel and zinc, net speculative positions remained low relative to the historical range, at 11-22%. For aluminium, the net speculative position reached its highest level since June 2022, although there is scope for further increases. By contrast, copper and tin both looked overextended at 74% and 87%, respectively. A high percentage indicates an increased chance of mean-reversion in the months ahead and lower prices.

We explained in our research piece that we use the trend in the categories “Investment Funds” and “Other Financial Institutions” combined for this report, because this total has a close correlation with LME price trends. The report can be found here: