AMT LME COTR Analysis 9 April

Base Metals LME speculators

9 April 2024: COTR data on LME speculative positions (for the week ending 5 April) were released this afternoon. The data showed that speculators were bullish across the whole complex, with net longs increasing. Fresh longs were seen in aluminium, copper, tin and zinc. However, the dominant driver for lead and nickel was short-covering, which […]

April 9, 2024 - Dan Smith

Read more

AMT Insight – Nickel: Prices Bounce Back on Margin Compression

China Electric vehicle Indonesia Nickel

19 March 2024: LME nickel prices have outperformed the rest of the base metals complex in the past month, with fundamentals starting to tighten. The market was in significant oversupply in 2023, but this drove prices down to rock bottom levels and producers then reacted quickly by cutting output. Also bullish is that nickel demand […]

March 20, 2024 - Dan Smith

Read more

AMT Insight – Base metals outlook video – why, where, what next?

Base Metals Copper Primary Aluminium Tin

Get the latest insights on base metals via our research video, which is now available for clients on Youtube. See link below. https://youtu.be/mayVdpMry7g The base metals showed significant divergence in terms of price trends in the past year. We explain why this happened, where we are in terms of fundamentals and what happens next? The […]

February 27, 2024 - Dan Smith

Read more

Tin: Technology Upturn, Amid Supply Crunch

Base Metals China Tin

9 February 2024: LME tin prices have outperformed the rest of the base metals complex in the past month, with fundamentals starting to tighten. Demand is improving, helped by an upswing in the global technology cycle. Even in China, electrical/electronic products are benefitting from government stimulus focussed on tin-related sectors, with limited exposure to the […]

February 9, 2024 - Dan Smith

Read more

Base Metals: Looking for Goldilocks

Base Metals China Copper Tin

19 January 2024: After a weak start to 2024, the major LME base metals are likely to trend higher in the year ahead. Interest rates are expected to fall and key parts of the global economy, such as China and the US should continue to grow. Furthermore, base metals demand is receiving a significant boost […]

January 19, 2024 - Dan Smith

Read more

Aluminium: Supply Shocks Shift Sentiment

China Primary Aluminium Russia

11 January 2024: The LME three-month aluminium price is up 6% in the past month, making it the best performing base metal during this period. Market fundamentals are supportive, with SHFE prices trading at a premium to the LME and the raw material market tightening, due to problems with bauxite supply in China and Guinea. […]

January 11, 2024 - Dan Smith

Read more

Copper Bulls: Notable By Their Absence

China Copper

15th December 2023: LME three-month copper prices have risen in the past month, helped by significant problems with mine supply in Latin America. Also, contract treatment charges (TCs) have been cut, as miners gain the upper hand with smelters in China, amid a tight raw materials market. Furthermore, Chinese copper imports have bounced back and […]

December 15, 2023 - Dan Smith

Read more

Monthly Ferrous Futures Report – November 2021

Ferrous

The ferrous complex was weaker across the board in November. Iron Ore spot dipped below 100 down to 87 in the middle of November but recovered back to 100 at the end of the month to average 95. Declines in futures on the back of production cuts, falling steel demand and over supply of iron […]

December 3, 2021

Read more

Monthly Ferrous Futures Report – October 2021

Ferrous

The main themes for October were soaring energy costs, falling iron ore prices, divergence between longs and flats and the US replacing Section 232 tariffs. Iron ore prices which have been on an uptrend since late 2018 due to firm Chinese demand, lost 8% value during the month. Improving steel mill margins since China’s steel […]

November 16, 2021

Read more