AMT Insight – Base Metals: Bulls cut, as China cools

China Copper Primary Aluminium Tin

18 June 2024: Base metal prices rallied in the first half of this year, but we believe that the rally is overdone, given the state of fundamentals, where investors are positioned and seasonality charts. Chinese demand was strong in Q1, but weakened into Q2. In many cases this fed through into higher domestic inventory levels […]

June 19, 2024 - Dan Smith

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AMT Insight – Base Metals: Russian sanctions reverberate

Copper LME Primary Aluminium Russia

25 April 2024: Base metal prices have soared in the past month, with additional sanctions on Russia combining with improving fundamentals. The LME was forced to act twice in April to impose restrictions on Russian metal deliveries and then to tighten rules around rent-sharing deals to maintain liquidity. This has created a confusing picture of […]

April 29, 2024 - Dan Smith

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AMT Insight – Base Metals: Speculative Bubbles Build

Base Metals Copper Lead Nickel Primary Aluminium Tin Zinc

12 April 2024: After a weak start to 2024, base metal prices jumped in March and early April, mainly driven by speculative forces. There are three reasons to believe that prices look overextended. First, net speculative positions look very high for copper and tin and rallies in nickel and zinc look difficult to justify given […]

April 15, 2024 - Dan Smith

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AMT Insight – Base metals outlook video – why, where, what next?

Base Metals Copper Primary Aluminium Tin

Get the latest insights on base metals via our research video, which is now available for clients on Youtube. See link below. The base metals showed significant divergence in terms of price trends in the past year. We explain why this happened, where we are in terms of fundamentals and what happens next? The […]

February 27, 2024 - Dan Smith

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Aluminium: Supply Shocks Shift Sentiment

China Primary Aluminium Russia

11 January 2024: The LME three-month aluminium price is up 6% in the past month, making it the best performing base metal during this period. Market fundamentals are supportive, with SHFE prices trading at a premium to the LME and the raw material market tightening, due to problems with bauxite supply in China and Guinea. […]

January 11, 2024 - Dan Smith

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Base Metals: China Flatters to Deceive

Base Metals Copper Nickel Primary Aluminium Tin Zinc

15th May 2023: Base metal prices have diverged so far year, as fundamental drivers have started to reassert themselves. In particular, tin was supported by concerns about supply shortages, due to problems in Myanmar and copper prices have been resilient, helped by the green energy transition. By contrast, significant weakness was seen in aluminium, lead, […]

May 15, 2023 - Dan Smith

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Base Metals: China Bounce Back to Boost Prices

Base Metals Copper Lead Nickel Primary Aluminium Zinc

31st January 2023: Last year was a weak period for most of the base metals and prices trended lower through the year, although nickel was an exception and followed its own bullish path. By contrast, aluminium, copper, tin and zinc prices have all rallied this year, despite a weak fundamental backdrop. While there is currently […]

January 31, 2023 - Dan Smith

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Russian Aluminium: The Door Is Closing

Primary Aluminium

Russian Aluminium – The Door Is Closing 6th October 2022: Aluminium prices have rallied as the market starts to worry about low LME stocks and the potential impact of an LME ban on Russian metal. While there is scope for trade flows to be diverted, this will take time and significant short-term disruption is likely. […]

October 6, 2022 - Dan Smith

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Aluminium: Energy Spike Alters Risk-Reward

Primary Aluminium

6th September 2022: Aluminium prices fell in August, as demand weakness combined with a stronger USD and declining risk appetite. Meanwhile, gas prices surged in Europe and the US, putting 1.2Mt/y of smelter capacity at risk from high electricity prices. Aluminium fundamentals still look lacklustre, but the downside for prices is starting to look limited […]

September 9, 2022 - Dan Smith

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