15th May 2023: Base metal prices have diverged so far year, as fundamental drivers have started to reassert themselves. In particular, tin was supported by concerns about supply shortages, due to problems in Myanmar and copper prices have been resilient, helped by the green energy transition. By contrast, significant weakness was seen in aluminium, lead, […]
May 15, 2023 - Dan Smith
31st January 2023: Last year was a weak period for most of the base metals and prices trended lower through the year, although nickel was an exception and followed its own bullish path. By contrast, aluminium, copper, tin and zinc prices have all rallied this year, despite a weak fundamental backdrop. While there is currently […]
January 31, 2023 - Dan Smith
Russian Aluminium – The Door Is Closing 6th October 2022: Aluminium prices have rallied as the market starts to worry about low LME stocks and the potential impact of an LME ban on Russian metal. While there is scope for trade flows to be diverted, this will take time and significant short-term disruption is likely. […]
October 6, 2022 - Dan Smith
6th September 2022: Aluminium prices fell in August, as demand weakness combined with a stronger USD and declining risk appetite. Meanwhile, gas prices surged in Europe and the US, putting 1.2Mt/y of smelter capacity at risk from high electricity prices. Aluminium fundamentals still look lacklustre, but the downside for prices is starting to look limited […]
September 9, 2022 - Dan Smith
The aluminium market is experiencing an array of supply pressures and threats. Combined with robust demand these have underpinned the metal’s rally to near all-time highs. Supply headwinds from surging energy prices and Ukraine tensions could prove transient. However, decarbonisation goals will constrain output growth in the coming years amid rising demand. This could exacerbate […]
February 22, 2022
Surge for demand in Aluminium? Since the onset of the global pandemic, decarbonisation has become a core pillar of government policy for most major economies. Aluminium is likely to see strong demand from low-carbon technologies and constraints on supply due to a crackdown on high-carbon production and electricity use. This shift means the long-term fundamental […]
June 30, 2021
what does this mean for consumers? Pressure from society, industrial consumers and governments to cut CO2 emissions from aluminium production is imposing costs on producers. Whether this cost is absorbed by governments or passed on to industrial consumers through higher premiums or underlying aluminium prices is subject to significant policy uncertainty. Background The global […]
April 14, 2021
Why is china facing obstacles? Strong growth in China aluminium smelting capacity and primary output over the last year have weighed on aluminium market sentiment and kept the global market in surplus. However, fresh determination in China to clamp-down on energy-intensive and high-carbon industries threaten approvals for new projects and expectations for continued supply growth […]
March 5, 2021