12 April 2024: After a weak start to 2024, base metal prices jumped in March and early April, mainly driven by speculative forces. There are three reasons to believe that prices look overextended. First, net speculative positions look very high for copper and tin and rallies in nickel and zinc look difficult to justify given […]
April 15, 2024 - Dan Smith
2nd October 2023: The major LME base metals have mostly rallied in the past year, although nickel and zinc prices have fallen sharply, reflecting poor fundamentals. One surprise has been the resilience of the base metals, despite the backdrop of problems in the Chinese property market. This is mainly because high debt levels at property […]
October 3, 2023 - Dan Smith
14th September 2023: LME three-month aluminium prices tumbled in the first half of this year, but the fall was halted in Q3 and we expect prices to rally in the year ahead. One reason for being bullish is that the Chinese market is starting to tighten, despite the backdrop of gloom around the property market. […]
September 22, 2023 - Dan Smith
2nd August 2023: Base metal prices have a close relationship with LME net speculative positions. Tracking these speculative flows helps to explain why markets are moving and allows us to differentiate between investment-driven changes in price and fundamental changes and to assess whether there is a gap between the two. There is also a forward-looking […]
August 2, 2023 - Dan Smith
14th July 2023: LME base metal prices showed mixed trends in H1 2023. While tin prices jumped, the rest of the complex retreated. Headwinds are coming from poor sentiment in China and weakness in global construction and manufacturing markets. However, markets like copper, nickel and tin saw a demand boost from the green energy transition. […]
July 14, 2023 - Dan Smith
AMT is pleased to announce that our Copper Market Webinar panel discussion is now available on our Youtube channel. See link below. We explain the latest supply and demand trends and price outlook, amid challenging economic headwinds. Dan Smith our Head of Research moderates the session and is joined by Panos Kotseras from CRU, Bryan […]
July 4, 2023 - Dan Smith
15th May 2023: Base metal prices have diverged so far year, as fundamental drivers have started to reassert themselves. In particular, tin was supported by concerns about supply shortages, due to problems in Myanmar and copper prices have been resilient, helped by the green energy transition. By contrast, significant weakness was seen in aluminium, lead, […]
May 15, 2023 - Dan Smith