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MSC Woes To Exacerbate Ex-China Tin Shortage

Tin

What do these tin shortages mean? News of severe tin production disruption at Malaysia Smelting Corporation (MSC) that could last beyond the end of 2021 has helped reignite the tin price rally and tighten nearby LME spreads. While there is a lack of clarity on the potential impact on output, the news comes as yet […]

May 5, 2021

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How Has Global Shipping Disruption Impacted Metal Markets?

Base Metals

What has caused the global shipping disruption? Since the onset of the pandemic, an acute shortage of global container freight capacity has seen shipping costs and delays surge to unprecedented levels. Causing this was an unexpected surge in demand for consumer goods, stranded containers from asymmetry in trade flows, and port delays. Disruption has impacted […]

April 28, 2021

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What Does Rising Inflation Mean For Base Metal Prices?

Base Metals

Will inflation effect prices? The global reflation trade continues to buoy prices and physical demand for base metals, which have rallied strongly alongside other risk assets over the last year. As key economies continue their stimulus-led rebound in Q2 and inflation picks up, this should continue to drive the metals bull market. However, investors will […]

April 20, 2021

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Will Consumers Pay More For Low-Carbon Aluminium?

Primary Aluminium

what does this mean for consumers? Pressure from society, industrial consumers and governments to cut CO2 emissions from aluminium production is imposing costs on producers. Whether this cost is absorbed by governments or passed on to industrial consumers through higher premiums or underlying aluminium prices is subject to significant policy uncertainty.   Background The global […]

April 14, 2021

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Bets Tempered For Future Battery-Grade Nickel Shortage

Nickel

Why is there a shortage? In early March nickel prices retreated by ~20% from February highs. The sharp move came after China steel giant and top nickel producer Tsingshan announced plans to produce a precursor to battery-grade nickel from nickel pig iron (NPI). This dampened investor expectations for a future shortage of Class 1 nickel […]

March 16, 2021

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China Aluminium Output Growth Faces Climate Obstacles

Primary Aluminium

Why is china facing obstacles? Strong growth in China aluminium smelting capacity and primary output over the last year have weighed on aluminium market sentiment and kept the global market in surplus. However, fresh determination in China to clamp-down on energy-intensive and high-carbon industries threaten approvals for new projects and expectations for continued supply growth […]

March 5, 2021

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How Robust is Copper’s Bull Market Narrative?

Will copper continue to rise? Copper’s relentless rally from March 2020 lows has seen prices rise by almost 50% from pre-pandemic levels to almost $9,500. The rally accelerated in February amid bullish forecasts from banks including Goldman Sachs, who expect prices to hit record highs of $10,500 within the next 12-months. Deficit expectations, low visible […]

March 3, 2021

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Tin Under Pressure After Stunning Start to 2021

Tin

Will tin bounce back or continue to drop? The LME 3-Month tin price gained up to 35% in early 2021 amid unprecedented global physical supply tightness. Nearby spreads hit extreme backwardations amid low global inventories. However, prices eased sharply in recent days amid aggressive selling; Investors fear an easing of metal shortages in the coming […]

March 2, 2021

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China Metal Demand Primed To Bounce Back From Holiday Lull

Seasonal Slowdown for china? China’s New Year Holiday will officially take place from 11th-17th February this year. We expect a seasonal slowdown in China industrial activity and strong metal inventory growth in February. However, a strong rebound in downstream activity is likely in the following months amid supportive fundamental drivers. China policy tapering remains a […]

February 8, 2021

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